Trey Lance trade provides needed reset for QB, low-risk flier for Cowboys

No need for Dak Prescott to sweat the sudden presence of Trey Lance.

At least not yet. If ever.

The Dallas Cowboys pulled off a stunning trade over the weekend in obtaining Lance from the San Francisco 49ers for a fourth-round pick, which would be just the thing to light a fire on social media with some fresh fuel to bash on Dak.

Now let’s be real. This deal was about rolling the dice for a potential payoff in the future. Not now.

Prescott, much-maligned and surely trying to rebound from his most challenging season, is not about to get pushed by an unproven player who is apparently in major need for development.

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The 49ers gave up three first-round picks and a third-round pick to move up nine slots in the 2021 draft to select Lance with the third pick overall. And a little more than two years later, coach Kyle Shanahan said something about the team not even expecting to be able to land a fourth-round pick for him.

Well, one person’s trash can be another person’s treasure.

"We see it as an opportunity," Cowboys owner Jerry Jones told reporters.

In this league, where quarterbacks are at a premium, it’s worth expending a fourth-round pick for the chance to see if Lance, now under the watch of Mike McCarthy, can develop into a legit quarterback.

Lance was such a hot commodity as he came into the NFL, having led North Dakota State to a 16-0 record and FCS national title in 2019. He looked the part of a future star, passing for 2,786 yards with 28 TDs and zero picks in 2019. But a bigger question than his level of college competition zeroed in on his limited experience. With his 2020 campaign limited to one game, Lance essentially played just one season in college, which followed just one season as a starter in high school.

The 49ers gambled and lost on Lance (but won with Brock Purdy, the last man drafted in 2022, after starting for four years at Iowa State), who was derailed by injuries, a lack of development time and surely the pressure of becoming the QB savior for a franchise that gave up so much to get him.

And therein lies the opportunity. Never mind that Lance is joining the team that draws the biggest spotlight in the NFL (still, somehow). He’s No. 3 behind Prescott and Cooper Rush, who proved to be a capable backup last year as Prescott recovered from a broken thumb.

Suddenly, Lance is positioned to learn and develop the old-school way. The pressure of being a member of the so-called "America’s Team" pales when compared to the pressure of becoming the next Joe Montana or Steve Young with the 49ers.

At least he’ll get some time for it to play out, which is what he needed from the 49ers in the first place, given his lack of college experience. Although not to the degree that the 49ers fell for, the Cowboys saw the potential in Lance, too. But they were thinking second-round prospect at the time, not a player to be drafted nine slots ahead of emerging star Micah Parsons. They surely saved the notes.

As McCarthy put it during his postgame news conference after the preseason finale on Saturday night, “I think it’s important to trust your grades.”

Lance was one of five quarterbacks chosen among the top 15 picks in 2021, the group headed by Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall and including Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Mac Jones. In dealing so much to get him, the 49ers – who have made so many shrewd personnel moves under Shanahan and GM John Lynch – demonstrated that they are not above making a desperate move.

That’s what teams will do to land quarterback. They act desperate.

In the Cowboys’ case, though, this is on the opposite end of the desperation meter. It’s more like drilling for oil (as the multi-billionaire Jones did in amassing his fortune) and hoping to strike it rich with a gusher. In the meantime, they’re on the hook to pay Lance a base salary of $940,000 this year as well as $5.3 million in 2024.

Prescott called Lance a “first-round talent” when asked about the moves by reporters. That’s classy. And it did not sound like a man sweating the new kid on the block, even while Prescott’s big salary cap figures loom in the coming years.

Jones, meanwhile, provided some bottom-line context about the developmental QB.

"I don’t want to plan on, count on, or wish for help from him this year," Jones said.

In other words, if the talented Cowboys find themselves needing Lance to become an instant savior, they are in Texas-sized trouble.

Benefits of mass cuts

Grumbling from coaches about the massive roster cutdown they must execute – NFL teams must trim the 90-man rosters to a 53-man squad by 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday – is layered with perspective.

Sure, coaches never find it easy to inform players that their dream of a pro football career is potentially (and likely in many cases) over and done with. That’s the human element.

Yet these same coaches have undoubtedly reaped the benefits of having just one cutdown date during the preseason to trim 37 spots, rather than the multiple cutdown days that used to be the case in the NFL for many years. Carrying big rosters that include many players who stood little chance of sticking provided the bodies that helped to preserve more valued commodities when it came to divvying up the practice reps.

"It’s good for health and safety," Falcons coach Arthur Smith said of the cutdown setup. "What happens a lot when you get into camp and you’re making cutdowns, you’ve got to limit your reps. A lot of times that hurts the back-end guys. You don’t have enough guys to snap the ball. Or you’re short on wideouts. So, it allows you to at least have enough depth to give guys more opportunities. You can keep the rep counts up and still manage other players.

"So, I look at it as a real positive and an opportunity to think strategically about who’s up…more opportunities for these younger guys. We’ve gotten a lot smarter in how we prepare for games, but there are some positions where you just need a time of reps."

At least there are increasing opportunities for those camp bodies. For the second year in a row, NFL teams can carry 16 players on their practice squad, double the number from a decade ago.

Accuracy matters

A statistic that promotes pause when it comes to the expectations of Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson: 44.8%.

That was Richardson’s completion percentage during the preseason, during which he completed 13 of 29 passes for 145 yards, with zero TDs and an interception.

For all of Richardson’s size and athleticism, it looks like trouble when an NFL quarterback can’t complete at least half of his passes. Sure, there’s a learning curve. It was preseason, which included the Colts seemingly prioritizing plays in which Richardson threw a large share of deep downfield passes in the finale against Philadelphia (6-of-17, 78 yards). Yet the defenses only get more complex from here. And the best passers in the NFL typically come close to hitting 70% of their throws.

The accuracy rate also underscores the need for Indianapolis to support Richardson, drafted fourth overall from Florida, with a rushing game powered by the dynamic Jonathan Taylor.

Then again, this particular challenge was predictable. Richardson’s completion mark for his career at Florida was just 54.7%. 

Trending: Squib kicks. Not trending: Fair catches on kickoff returns.

As expected, at least for the preseason, NFL teams have virtually ignored the new, safety-inspired rule allowing them to advance the ball to the 25-yard line by calling for a fair catch on kickoff returns inside the 25.

Through the first two preseason weekends (and the Hall of Fame Game), NFL teams combined for one fair catch on kick returns.

Squib kicks are another matter, though, as teams develop strategies for applying the rule on kickoffs. Through the first two preseason weekends, 18 kickoffs were squib-kicked, compared to 10 during the same period in 2022. The average starting field position for the squibs this summer: 30.3-yard line.

So, add another factor to the threat level of kicking it deep.